This picture shows a traditional scene, where four of Abingdon’s five candidates for the 1945 parliamentary election are seen holding simultaneous meetings on the Market Square (from a Picture Post currently on sale in Ebay).
Opposing sides in the 2016 Referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU had opposing tables on the Market Place this morning.
The Vote Leave campaigners one side …
the Vote Remain on the other. It is good to see the normal political groupings forgotten during this single-issue campaign. Behind the Remain table are local Conservative MP, Nicola Blackwood, and members of other parties and independents
What I’ve found quite absurd with this campaign is the “cocooned” from the real world all telling us ( those in the real world) of the catastrophic effect leaving the EU would have on us! Branson, now a non Dom ( non uk tax payer ) telling us how his biz would suffer if we left ( sob sob ) Osbourne, has a privalaged life, born with a silver spoon and only interested in supporting the rich, tell us to stay only to protect his and his families mega rich way of life, Dave and the Chippong Norton set who never sits in a doctors waiting room or kids go to the local state school and our Mp, born in South Africa, uni education, parachuted into Abingdon to tell us what’s best,
Meanwhile, us plebs have to accept second rate education, overwhelmed health service, a disappearing pension regime, and immigrants taking our housing, it’s about time this Tory government woke up to the real world! Just when I thought it couldn’t get worse than a decade of Blair we’ve now had four years of Dave and to be honest the later is so far worse than the former !
Yes a lot of people have had enough of the EU. I liked Jeremy Paxmans examination of the EU. No one in the EU parliament likes having to pack everything up once a month and move to Strasbourg, (t is perhaps the most outlandish of the European Union’s excesses; a £130 million travelling circus that once a month sees the European Parliament decamp from Belgium to France). Everyone hate the move but no one has the power to put an end to this farce. We have seen services for the vulnerable cut in this country while we pay 35 million a day to the EU for such excesses as above. We know that the NHS will collapse with all the immigration that we will have to cope with. However, a green party member said at a meeting that once our standard of living goes down to below that of Romania immigration to the UK will lesson. Our cities will become slums and crime will increase.
…but I thought if we leave…the World will end.
And
If we stay…it’ll all be as good as it is now.
Fact filled rant as usual from Janet
I don’t know why I’m bothering to ask Janet, but which Green Party member at what meeting, when? Where was it reported or were you personally present to hear it?
…worryingly, both sides of the campaign are somewhat scant on facts too!
Makes it very difficult.
I rather think that the NHS will collapse even quicker if it can’t get EU staff to work there!
And it’s funny how many people overlook the fact that EU citizens only have the right to live here if they (or a family breadwinner) works so they actually contribute to the welfare of “our” vulnerable people rather than being a drain on the system.
Good to see that in Abingdon (at least) the remain voters outstrip the leave ideologists by a factor of 7:1. NB I am discounting the guy in the leave photo who looks like he doesn’t want to be in the photo 🙂
He was being handed a leaflet.
I must admit…the whole thing is far beyond my wit or wisdom; but I am curious to know, why, if we vote leave on the 23rd…all the “EU” workers will suddenly stop working in the NHS on the 24th? Does “leave” mean only British people can ever work here?
“Leave”means that all the people that ever came to this country must LEAVE immediately, Daniel. And therefore no one who ever bought goods from us or traded with us will ever speak to us again…far less trade with us. And Obama will make us go to the back of the queue (or was it sit on the naughty step?). Then the world will end.
To my mind the impact of a leave vote is such an unknown (the results depend entirely on what deal we agree with the EU on a host of things, trade, immigration, UK Ex pats in Europe etc. etc.) that there aught to have been potentially two referenda.
1) Should we stay or negotiate a leave package?
If the result is negotiate to leave, we need a second vote after there is a package on the table.
2) Should we stay or leave with this agreed package.
In the situation we have I fear that if, heaven forbid, we do vote to leave a lot of the rabid xenophobes who voted for that option will be shocked and disappointed to discover that we end up with a trade deal like Norway that requires us to keep our borders open. Voting out is defiantly a lose lose scenario. Those who want to stay lose because that’s not what they want and those who want to leave lose because the resulting trade deal leaves in place all the things they hate and wanted to leave because of.
It is indeed a conundrum, on the one hand you have Dave & co peddling the fear factor, bombarding us with all sorts of Armageddon scenarios if we leave, a labour shadow cabinet member said yesterday the economy is too fragile to leave? But surely if someone’s had your arm twisted up your back for forty years to the point of exhaustion and unbearable pain then it’s time to change, or risk falling deeper into pain ?
For me it’s not necessarily about the common agricultural policy, nor the fishery one that keeps our trawler men in port from where they watch the French fish our waters, it’s not about the PC brigade, the bonkers H &S regime imposed on us either, for me it’s all about immigration, losing control of our borders, being forced to allow Turks free entry, standing by watching the rapid dilution of the fabric of this once great country, last week the U.S announced massive import duties on cheap Chinese steal in an effort to protect its steal industry, but the EU forbid us to do similar, it’s got to be an out vote and if that doesn’t fix it for us we can always apply to rejoin
Rejoining would require us to join the Euro which we currently have an opt out from as an existing member – vote out to come back in? That way madness lies.
Hester, if EU citizens only have the right to live here if they have someone who works where did the problem come of hundreds of Roma sleeping rough in London?
Exactly that Hester, we cannot have an open door policy and expect to retain our identity and uniqueness, talking with my neighbour yesterday ha just come back from a biz trip to Hamburg, his meeting finished at 9pm so he thought he’d go for an evening stroll, 5 minutes later he returned to his hotel frightened witless by the gangs of morrocans and Algerians that Rome the streets at will, also, I was in Lisbon month ago and listened to locals complaint of all the holders of Portuguese passports from their past colonies who enter Portugal on their Portuguese passport then make for the UK as EU citizens, it’s the same with any EU country that had overseas territories, the Dutch, Belgiums, French and Spanish holding passports are all entitled to live here!
That won’t stop till we regain our borders and that won’t happen till we leave the EU
Ooh, Janet, I think I know that one.
Is it because the bankers spent the huge bonuses they got for messing up our economy on property in London, pushing up prices and reducing supply and now their right-wing Torry mates are taking advantage of migrant workers by paying them less than a living wage so they can’t afford the exorbitant London rents?
KC2 I say again, you have no guarantee that the trade deal we have to make to continue selling 50% of our production to the EU won’t require us to keep our borders open like Norway and other countries outside the EU.
I’m an Abingdon expat, living in Germany for almost 10 years now. Having lived in Hamburg for many years, I have to defend the city! This person must have been walking around a dodgy area of the city – it’s one of the nicest cities in Germany! Don’t believe everything you read in the news, there are not big gangs of migrants everywhere!
Oh and obviously I’m in and hope my lovely hometown does the right thing!! 🙂
… and on the question of steel, Capt. K, other EU countries such as Germany have put in protection measures, EU officials encouraged our Govt to join them and offered help but Dave refused.
Today, armed forces minister Penny Mordaunt, stated that within 8 year Turkey and Albania will have joined the EU flooding the UK with murderes, gangsters and terrorists and if we don’t vote to leave the EU we will be powerless to stop them !
Hester I agree with you. It was a disgrace that Dave refused to protect our steel industry as other countries did. Our politicians are a disgrace and do not care a jot about E U citizens and their right to a decent living. It is because other countries have a strong national identity and care about their industries. Our politicians are self interested and do not care about British rights at all.
I think people are throwing around words like “definitely” and “guarantee” rather too Willy nilly.
The only fact is that no one knows what will happen if we leave…
Anything else, at best, is a guess.
Of course having nothing but guesses bodes equally well or ill whatever side of the fence you sit; but lets not mislead people by veiling guesses and maybes as anything more substantial than what they actually are….
I agree with Daniel’s last comment; nobody knows for certain what will happen – what we are offered is opinion and projection, neither of which can be proven.
What happened to vision? Fear is no basis for a healthy relationship with the rest of the world. It seems that we either pull up the drawbridge or we mend fences.
I’m for fence-mending.
This is easy. Nobody knows the economic consequences. What we do know is that we can escape from the unelected bureaucrats who tell us what to do and spend our money without having to balance the books and allow “Human Rights” to ride roughshod over the British values.
We voted for the Common Market, not this.
Damned human rights heh?
The economic impact of exit is depressingly clear – trade drives strong economic performance, non-trade does not. The EU is our largest trade partner.
Less trade equals less money to spend on whatever you care about – nhs, education, military, etc
Quite frankly fed up with all of the blatent lies on both sides.
Most of it seems to pander to prejudices which simply are not true, apart from in the narrow world of tabloid journalism.
The trouble comes when “tabloid land” becomes peoples real world view. Many of the comments on here would not stand up a basic fact test, but seem to fall under the “repeat it enough it becomes true” category.
I am no fan of the EU, but will be voting to remain given the “outties” dont have a proper plan of what happens on exit or what out relationship with the EU might be. Call me old fashioned but if you want someone to vote for something you need at a minimum an agreed roadmap of what happens and what that means. I guess its easier sometimes to get votes by picking on something to blame everything on, and promising a vague utopia by getting rid of it, rather than actually having a sensible plan.
Trump is doing very well in the US with similar tactics.
Thankfully we are a bit smarter in the UK, but not much it would seem.
Sir Ralph Glyn,1st Baron Glyn represented the Abingdon constituency continuously from1924 to 1953, first as a Unionist then Conservative MP and won that 1945 election on 64.1% turnout from Liberal,lLabour, Communist, and Independent rivals. I wonder which one wasn’t in that picture and what will be the turnout in the current Referendum next month. If all the people who say they will vote OUT do vote Cameron could be in for a surprise!
Except, of course, Captainkaos2, she was talking rubbish. Article 49 of the EU treaty states when talking about a state applying to join the EU (and I quote) . “This agreement shall be submitted for ratification by all the contracting States in accordance with their respective constitutional requirements.” Every member state has a right of veto, a right of veto, incidentally, they would be free to use against a state that left and subsequently tried to re-join.
And here’s a thought, let’s imagine we left and the rest of the EU choose to admit Turkey, who incidentally have been trying and failing to join since 1950, how likely do you think it is that France would continue to police their border out to us?
Oops, that’s 1959, not 1950.
You know…if your fence needs mending…you may just see the grass is greener through the gap (or over-run weeds – or indeed s-weeds).
Or, you may decide to put a gate in.
…and, why does leaving = leaving in fear? And … why would any ‘new relationships’ be based on fear?
And, in fact….you *could* argue, that it is fear that causes us to stay! Is a relationship based on fear better if it is with Europe? Or Perhaps that fear is better than the other fear?
And also, what I just don’t get…is why does a relationship with the rest of the world mean we’ll never have any relationship with Europe. Or…is Europe not part of “the rest of the world”?
Maybe we would “pull up the drawbridge”…but if you looked around and the moat has been filled in, the walls taken down, and everyone’s friends…why would you need a drawbridge (or even mended fence) at all..??
I’m still undecided though….I’ll await this week’s lies…and have a think which ones to disbelieve first…
Reductioa, not so, we can’t veto to stop immigrants/refugees coming here just as we can’t stop the fisheries policy or any other of the nonsense that spews from Brusells, if we could have a veto on all the rubbish that affects us we wouldn’t be in the mess we’re in nor would we be having an election on it ! It’s also worth being mindful that st least four other countries are watching us, if we do get an out vote majority it will be the catalyst for others to leave this German dominated farce !
Any way at this moment in time all is beautiful in the world, I’ve just seen my all time hero Brian Wilson and the beach boys performing at the Pakadium, of course if we stay in and the fundementalist take over entertainment as we know it will cease! anyone want to see a beheading ?
Captain. Either accidentally or on purpose you have misrepresented what I said. I was making specific reference to the nasty, poisonous, offensive and wholly incorrect comments you were ‘quoting’ from defence minister Penny Mordaunt which I very pleased to see are no longer here.
Just looked closer and sadly those nasty comments re: Turkey are still here and still as incorrect and offensive.
I suspect many on this blog are of a certain generation, many of whom have never lived outside of Abingdon,let alone anywhere in the wider world. I expect many of you never travel regularly to Europe to see how well they have managed their towns and cities. ( yes Hamburg is lovely and no they don’t have a migrant problem you fool) With town planning invigorating centres. Bikes, pedestrians , cars public transport all considered. I expect many of you keyboard warriors have no idea what it like to experience the joy of travelling with ease across Europe every month. Well I do. I would suggest you all broaden your horizons and embrace change/ integration. If you don’t like a Jonny Foreigner fine, but don’t expect to pay the same if you want to eat out/ shop at Tesco/ go to the pub the list goes on.
I haven’t made my mind up yet…and yes, I am part of a generation (aren’t we all?),; but no idea if it is the one you are referring to?…but…I am confused….
If we “leave”….why will I not be able to travel to, through, or around Europe!?
And I don’t get how stay/leave affects my clubcard points?
Mary I have never seen such a patronising and ageist post. All the older generation I know have traveled extensively as have I. I am voting to leave the EU. My reasons are, our population is increasing at a rapid rate. There are over a million people on social housing lists around the country. The NHS cannot cope. A report blamed mass immigration for the strain on ambulance services and hospitals. We cannot cope with extra demands on our services. Also the government has forced local councils to make massive cuts to our services. Does this make sense as our population is growing rapidly because of immigration? The E U is a large bureaucratic organisation and spends money at a rapid rate. EU auditors refuse to sign off more than £100billion of its own spending. As the Euro fails our contributions will rise at a rapid rate also. If we stay in the EU our standard of living will fall. When it all collapses and there is mass unemployment in this country (in some countries at the moment youth unemployment stands at 50%) Poverty, homelessness and ill health will be the norm. (Apart from the very well off who will not suffer to the same extent).
Oh dear Mary, those really are Rose Tinted spectacles !
I cant say I can match your globe trotting credentials, but from my annual visits to the ‘mainland’, I can only say it seems pretty much the same as here.. Some bits they do better, some worse, but at all levels, the EU organisation as such, is just a by word for waste, over charging and back handers.
Still, the UK must really be doing it wrong, what with all those hundreds of ‘migrants’ camped up at Calais, desperate to get across the channel, having rejected the delights of all those invigorating European countries on the way….
So far I’ve seen nothing but FUD spread from both sides of the argument, but the reality is, whichever way the vote goes, we wont actually be leaving, because all the politicians with actual power have a vested interest in keeping us in.
Its all a charade to let the little man think they have a say, just like the laughably called ‘local planning policy’.
Now.. if the EU would build us a monorail, that would be a different matter..
It’s nice to see Nicola Blackwood make a appearance in the market place as I have not heard or seen anything about her since last years election !! Same can be said for Ed Vasey who is also keeping his head down !!! Cameron’s puppets in my opinion and I hope we EXIT the EU and get our identity back !!! Oxfordshire like many areas have been let down and ruined by poorly under pressured councils controlled by the PM and Brussels !!!
Also the migrant crisis is over as it hasn’t been mentioned on the BBC news for weeks !!!! Just in time for the EU vote !!! Surely the government dosnt control or monitor the BBC news do they ??
I think Guy, like the whole CO2/climate change furore from a couple years ago; this is now resolved.
Guy a member of the security services told me if you want to know what is going on in the world it is no use watching or listening to the BBC. It is so establishment biased. I usually look at other sources of information such as English versions of foreign newspapers and Al Jazeera.
Hey Mary, so Germany doesn’t have a migrant problem then? Cast your mind back to the news of New Year’s Day. where the German media was full of reports of a well organised mass sexual assaults and rapes on German women carried out by gangs of immigrants ! It was estimated that over 1000 women on New Year’s Eve were the subject of one sort of abuse or another, whose the fool ?
“Swarms of nonwhite “refugee” invaders have engaged in mass sex attacks in Hamburg and Stuttgart over New Year’s Eve, it has emerged, reinforcing a pattern set by the 1000-strong attack mob in Cologne”
Google the problem Germany has Mary and you will find loads of reports like this !
Interesting article in yesterday’s Sunday Times with a league table of the countries least regulated (i.e “bureaucratically controlled”: Britain (in EU) is second, after the Netherlands (also in EU) so one wonders where the scope to get rid of red tape by leaving is going to be found? Among those massively more regulated are Norway and Switzerland, also Japan and Canada – all places which are often held up as models!
And to pick up Guy’s implication that Oxfordshire doesn’t benefit much from the EU: Universities in the South-East (of which we have two) get about £100m pa in EU funding and that helps to create an enormous number of jobs; we have numerous other scientific employers in this area, much of whose work is EU funded; BMW are in Oxford because of the ease of running a cross-Europe operation etc etc. As Daniel says, these aren’t all going to disappear on 24 June, but it is most unlikely that when current projects come to an end, they will be replaced by new ones if we don’t have similar trading agreements in place.
And finally, I read Mary’s comments the other way round from Janet: I assumed she meant that it was us older (and wiser?) people who had had the opportunity to live and travel abroad and form a balanced view and that the “keyboard warriors” were youngsters!
Interesting points raised Hester…
But I just don’t get how you can predict, with such veracity, that once current projects end…there’ll be no new ones?
The reporter on the news just said that one scenario could be there be a veritable clamour to make deals with the UK if we leave due to the opportunities to make good business ..
Iain’s comment at #25 is interesting…I do not disagree with any part of what was said. But I don’t see why any of it wouldn’t still ring true if we leave. Why wouldn’t we have trade with others – and therefore strong economic performance still…just with others….or, indeed, STILL with Europe too!?
And IF the last part of Iain’s comment does resonate – I’m not picking on you Iain, I’m just trying to make sense of it all…. what are the implication for trade, and worryingly the NHS etc if we STAY because of the TTIP deal being done … what are the negative implications of that on the NHS…?
Dee – you are right that several of the leading Remain campaigners come from privileged backgrounds and don’t live ‘in the real world’. However the same can be said about Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Nigel Farage and most of the leading Leave campaigners, and particularly the (foreign) owners of the tabloid newspapers that fill people’s heads with anti-EU propaganda day after day.
Janet – immigrants pay more in than they get out, and many of them pay in while doing vital jobs in our NHS and other public services. Immigrants are more likely to be working and less likely to be claiming benefits or using the NHS than we Brits.
Daniel – you are right that there is too much hyperbole on both sides, and that, whichever way we vote, the world won’t collapse tomorrow. However, it’s difficult to see how the Leave supporters can argue that we will be able to control immigration much more strongly if we leave the EU without there being some impact on the number of EU workers coning here long term.
Captain – it is true that folk like Boris who previously supported Turkey joining the EU are now claiming that we will be forced to let Turkey join. In fact, when it comes to new countries joining the EU, every country has a veto. Not just us but, the Greeks too.
GRJ – in what way do we have any more control over British civil servants than we have over EU civil servants? And this ‘allow “Human Rights” to ride roughshod over the British values’ – you do know who wrote the European Convention of Human Rights do you?
I don’t think the world will end if we vote to leave the EU, but I think a lot of leave voters are going to be sadly disappointed if we do.
No-one can say for certain what will happen if we leave, but it is likely that if we heavily restrict the ability of EU citizens to come to the UK the EU will reciprocate and a lot of UK citizens living and working in the EU will have to come back.
If we leave and want to continue to have access to the EU market it is likely that we will be asked to contribute substantially as Norway and others do now, just without any say.
And it is likely that some companies that currently base themselves here to have access to the EU will move elsewhere, but possible that we will have freer trade elsewhere.
The main thing for me is that the EU was set up to increase trade, movement and cultural exchange between western european nations because that is better than fighting each other as we had done for the previous few hundred years. On that score it’s done pretty well. In my view it’s worth building on that approach rather than throwing it away.
…why will we heavily restrict the ability of EU citizens to come to the UK? Why won’t people that we need, and who want to come here, suddenly not be able to come here? And no one has any idea what is going to happen long term; about anything. But not knowing doesn’t automatically mean “bad”. We do not know what the long term impacts are to be of the free movement of people, for example….
We now have increased trade, increased movement and increased cultural exchange. Why will we suddenly lose that….and start fighting?
I haven’t picked at the scab of the “Norway” model, or the “Swiss” model….but why would we do either of those? Why wouldn’t we have a “UK” model? ( I think I’m missing an explanation on this very point as I type – darn it”)! And anyway….the majority of people in Norway are totally happy with their ‘model’… so why is it always proffered as a bad thing? The Norwegians love it!!
There is clearly more for me to learn; but I can tell you another fact…a true, real, fact….I am swayed not one jot by what Dave or George say (I’ve been no fan of what they’ve been up to since 2010, so why would i ‘trust’ them on this?)…or for that matter by what Boris or Nige say…and certainly not by what is written in a newspaper…so the fact those people may have lots of money makes no difference to me. (Although I understood that Michael Gove does NOT have a privileged back ground – although it is somewhat subjective…)
A ‘leave vote’ is a jump into the unknown, but a ‘stay vote’ has its unknowns like an EU politician, Merkel, say, getting up one morning and deciding to say something so unthought out that it has totally unexpected seismic consequences for the whole EU.
Of course, whatever happens I have no faith in any of our politicians to negotiate a remotely decent deal for the UK.
I’m for out … it’s a capacity issue and the decision is forced by population numbers..
Still not sure myself, I read recently a letter which was written, joined the Common Market, so we could trade in a larger market. Which became later a Europeon Union. The end of the world scenario if we stay or leave. All I want is an unbiased opinion. Not political. But nobody has a chrystal ball I suppose. What did we do before the Common Market, People always talk about prosperity, money. Building of the NHS etc….
Neil – excellently put.
Colin B – I am not sure that ” What did we do before the Common Market” is really relevant now as the world has moved on and going back is not an option. For example:
– we had a Commonwealth then, with free trade – and movement of people (!) – with those countries. They are now mostly signed up to other geographically-based trading blocs, as indeed are most countries in the world; there are very few totally independent countries.
– whether we like it or not, most industry and business, on which “prosperity” is built is global. The pre-Common market days were much more based around a combination of small shops and businesses and large industries built on the back of mass manual labour. While the first of these might have some attractions (but not for those wanting cheapest deals on everything) I am not sure that many would want the llatter.)
Sadly ColinB there are no unbiased opinions, crystal balls or time machines.
All any of us can do is critically examine the available evidence, personally I always try to be doubly critical of evidence that supports my own opinion, and then make up our own minds. I think the most important thing of all is to form some sort of opinion that you are personally comfortable with and then vote according to it.
I think reductio, you have pretty much summed it up. Just take an issue close to your heart, and vote accordingly…it is impossible to agree with all the issues on one side, I think…
I do think though, that whilst Neil has an interesting summary, it does have that hyperbole that was spoken of…(as I am all too aware I likely do too)…
I really find it interesting (and somewhat frustrating) that, for instance, the “Norway model” is put forward as some kind of negative…. “Oh no…we could end up like Norway if we leave”….cry the Stayers….
But…the Norwegians, are constantly happy with their “deal”…so making it sound like a “threat” if we leave that we could be like them makes no sense!
Likewise if we leave we’ll be thrown in to turmoil….even though nothing will even start to happen for years…so, where is the turmoil? Yes…the slow turning cogs of change…but not “turmoil”.
House prices “plummeting”…oh no….doom and gloom…. But I thought that there’s a housing crisis here…I thought “last week”…we wanted to cool the housing market…? So even though there’s absolutely no guarantee that prices WOULD fall….even if they did…isn’t that a good thing?
And I STILL don’t understand why if we leave, people won’t be able to move around Europe…or, if we leave…why our English laws would suddenly change…
And I simply do not understand why we would be “cast adrift” from a trade POV if we leave…why wouldn’t we have trade deals with anyone else?
Granted, the detail is scant on both sides….and I am certain I need to dig at the “leave” argument more…but the only thing I am getting from the “Stay” team is reasons NOT to leave…but I can’t see that their ‘fears’ have any meat….
still.. a bit of time to keep picking at it I suppose….
I don’t think people are holding up Norway’s EEA agreement as a bad thing, rather trying to make people aware of the sort of deals that need to be struck to trade with Europe and that these include accepting most EU directives, making payments to the EU and becoming part of Schengen Area for freedom of movement of workers.Since these are the three main reasons many people cite for wanting to leave, it seems only sensible to alert them to this fact.
I think we should stay, but if we do leave I would be happy with a Norway style agreement.
Thanks you Hester. Indeed older is also wiser and with wisdom also the ability to debate I would hope. Good luck choosing , the more I read the less I know !
@53, no I disagree….part of the doom mongering is very much negative about Norway’s relationship with Europe….without any acknowledgment of how Norway sees that relationship.
The more I read…the more the arguments weaken or have no veracity. Great headlines….but not much use.
I agree with the various comments that the campaign has become high on hyperbole and short on balance. Sadly (as a Conservative) I feel we’re witnessing a very open bloodletting on an issue which has divided the party for the last 30 years, rather than a public debate.
I think there are 4 areas of debate:
What happens to the economy: personally (and I’ve got an economics degree so i look at the numbers reasonably carefully) i think, whilst there is no certainty, it looks pretty likely that we’re better served by being in than out. In particular it is highly likely that there will be a period of uncertainty (read recession) if we did vote out.
What happens to immigration: there is clearly a case that leaving would give more controls. The issue here is two fold, would the government choose to use them given most EU immigration is to working people who pay tax, and we’re likely to need to do some sort of trade deal which is likely to come at a cost of immigration restrictions.i find the stuff about doom predictions about turkish entry etc rather unconvincing.
can we regain sovereignty? This is a fair point, but again i suspect we’d end up ceding some of this again in return for trade benefits. The related point here is the efficiency of the EU – i fully agree with the brexit argument that the EU is an inefficient organisation (the strasbourg thing is the most overt example). It doesnt matter in the global scheme of things if there is a net economic benefit, but we should use the referendum to try and influence the EU to become more efficient.
Is our defence capability threatened by Brexit? I think the argument on this is very weak. I suspect there is a minor defence benfit by being in the EU, but I think we’d rapidly establish other mechanisms and will be in a very similar position regardless of whether we vote in or out.
Overall, i’m voting to remain as i think the economic case is the strongest of the various arguments.
We should not have a PM who is biased one way or the other. He should sit on the fence while is government create two sides, pro leaving and pro staying.
Unfortunately, we have a PM who is sticking to one side. Therefore, if the result is that we leave the EU, then Cameron must stand down and call a general election, or pass the PM job onto Boris who wishes for us to be Britain again. If we leave the EU, do we really want Cameron to still be making decisions having already stated we would be a sitting duck on our own?
there’s an interesting article written by 8 other economists who detail why there’s a strong economic case to leave…
Am happy to post a link to it, if allowed and anyone wants….
PS – I have an archaeology degree and an HND in Engineering (Electrical).
Now there’s a nightmare scenario! Boris as PM and Trump as POTUS. It’ll be a miracle if I ever dare sleep again now that’s found its way into my brain.
It’s true that economists (especially Patrick Minford) are famous for disagreeing with each other Daniel, but having looked at the reports from the IMF, the Bank Of England, the Treasury and now the IFS, not to mention most of the banks, I think there is certainly a prevailing view that Brexit would be bad for the economy at least in the short to medium term.
Also to add to Hester’s point (44) regarding the local impact of the EU.
The labs, CCFE, JET and the Diamond Source, are massive employers in this town, and they all benefit significantly from EU funding. I don’t know if they have issued any comment on the impact of Brexit yet, but I would assume they are worried about the funding implications of Brexit.
Understand your point Hester about £100 million into the universities but with a £60 million a day membership £100 million is just a drop in the ocean !!! Our local areas and communities are crumbling around us with lack of funds with the mess of the Oxfordshire roads is a prime example !!!
“the IMF, the Bank Of England, the Treasury and now the IFS, not to mention most of the banks” Iain…these would be the same ones that landed us in the biggest recession ever and who couldn’t predict anything for the following year, let alone predict what will happen in 10/20.years as they are trying too?
We don’t send 60million a day or anything like.
In 2015 our membership fee was 18billion, Before we pay that we get a discount of 5billion which means we actually send 13billion. By my calculations that’s just under 36million a day. I’m not denying that’s a lot of money but let’s please at least be accurate.
Additionally we get 4.5billion back in subsidies and payments. That makes 8.5billion or 23million a day net contribution.
By way of comparison our defence budget last year was 66.5 billion or 182million a day.
Thankyou Reductio,
its those sort of straight facts and figures that seem so hard to come by from either side of the argument, or the mainstream media.
I’ll add that information from those bodies Iain in to my machinations….although I am already of the opinion that the IMF is one of the “winners” from Europe, whereas the plebs aren’t. And so turkeys and Christmas is an analogy that’d spring to mind if the IMF thought otherwise…I don’t know about the others….
After 66 comments, I’m perhaps none the wiser?
Surely the real options are: stay in,and ultimately become part of a United States of Europe, or leave, and remain a democracy where as individuals we are closer to the decision making and still (albeit at 5 year intervals) able to make a difference.
I’m disappointed that much of the debate is focussing on comparatively short-term effects, many of which are impossible to forecast. (For what it is worth part of my job is forecasting and the old adage in the trade is, “you are either wrong or lucky!”)
…does that old adage apply to marriage too…?
Personally…I have found this all very useful. It has made me think about some issues and consolidated my thoughts on others.
Mr Smith, nor am I. What is clear, is what Ruductio wrote, there is no unbiased information available. Have to make my own decision nearer to the day. Try not to be swayed by either sides arguments why I should vote a certain way…nobody knows what will happen…
Yes Colin – I prefer to look at what benefits and disbenefits we have actually had from the EU – and there are indeed both – rather than promises or threats of what might happen in future.
Daniel – I’ve been very lucky !
….better say that as Mrs Smith follows this blog…
p.s. I’m trying to remain neutral on-line. Anyone for a straight banana?
Just in case anyone is still looking at this, I have just come across some research which claims to be independent and fact-checks the claims being made by both sides. https://speakout.38degrees.org.uk/campaigns/936?source=button
….I’m still reading Hester…a good link, thank you.